Evaluating CFSv2 Subseasonal Forecast Skill with an Emphasis on Tropical Convection

MJO‐Related Tropical Convection Anomalies Lead to More Accurate Stratospheric Vortex Variability in Subseasonal Forecast Models

The effect of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on the Northern Hemisphere wintertime stratospheric polar vortex in the period preceding stratospheric sudden warmings is evaluated in operational subseasonal forecasting models. Reforecasts which simulate stronger MJO-related convection in the Tropical West Pacific also simulate enhanced heat flux in the lowermost stratosphere and a more realis...

A Comparison of Precipitation Forecast Skill between Small Near-Convection- Permitting and Large Convection-Parameterizing Ensembles

Impact of Land Surface Initialization Approach on Subseasonal Forecast Skill: A Regional Analysis in the Southern Hemisphere

The authors use a sophisticated coupled land–atmosphere modeling system for a Southern Hemisphere subdomain centered over southeasternAustralia to evaluate differences in simulation skill from two different land surface initialization approaches. The first approach uses equilibrated land surface states obtained from offline simulations of the land surface model, and the second uses land surface...

on some bayesian statistical models in actuarial science with emphasis on claim count

چکیده ندارد.

Seasonal prediction skill of ECMWF System 4 and NCEP CFSv2 retrospective forecast for the Northern Hemisphere Winter

The seasonal prediction skill for the Northern Hemisphere winter is assessed using retrospective predictions (1982–2010) from the ECMWF System 4 (Sys4) and National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) CFS version 2 (CFSv2) coupled atmosphere–ocean seasonal climate prediction systems. Sys4 shows a cold bias in the equatorial Pacific but a warm bias is found in the North Pacific and part o...